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The risk, they have warned, is that large basis positions could once again exacerbate vulnerabilities in the U.S. bond market, which is a linchpin of the world's financial system. "These basis positions with these transformations are going to be a part of the equation because it's a necessary evil to get the capital to meet the demand." Higher supply comes as liquidity in Treasuries has been problematic for most of last year, partially due to rising volatility spurred by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle. But Richard Chambers, global head of repo trading and global co-head of short macro trading at Goldman Sachs, told the trading forum on Thursday that the repo market was now more efficient. "We will have more levered investors buying Treasuries into 2024 and so demand for leverage in Treasuries will increase," he said.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Janet, Yellen, Jason Granet, Mark Wendland, , Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, Treasuries, Treasury, BNY Mellon, DRW Holdings, Reuters, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Treasuries
Morning Bid: Messy market mood as oil irks
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Model of Oil barrels are seen in front of rising stock graph in this illustration, July 24, 2022. The crude spur is more supply than demand related and most fingers point to the latest output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Headline inflation rates are already backing up as a result of the energy price rebound and U.S. gas pump prices rose last week to $3.88 per gallon - the highest since October 2022. Stock markets around the world were mixed to positive and U.S. futures were up a fraction ahead of Wall St's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, Claudio Borio, Mehmet Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy, Administration, Federal Reserve, Bank for International, U.S, Economic, American Chamber of Commerce, Stock, Kingfisher, . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Turkey's, Goldman, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Treasuries, China, Shanghai, Europe, Canada, New York
The Bank of Israel in November 2021 stepped up its research and preparation for the possible issuance of a digital shekel to create a more efficient payments system after first considering issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in late 2017. "Whether or not we will issue a digital shekel is still an open question, as it is in most if not all other advanced economies," Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron said at a conference on digital currencies. Israel's central bank has been experimenting with a digital shekel with its Hong Kong counterpart and the Bank for International Settlements. Deputy Governor Andrew Abir said that for Israel, issuing a digital shekel would provide more competition in a financial system dominated by a few large banks and institutions. "I believe central banks should return to examine the possibility (of) remunerated CBDCs – that is, for the central bank to pay interest CBDC directly to the end users who hold it, and enjoy the security provided by the central bank.
Persons: Amir Yaron, Yaron, Israel, Andrew Abir, Abir, Steven Scheer, Alexander Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: The Bank of Israel, Bank of Israel, Hong Kong, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Israel
Aug 29 (Reuters) - Maintaining privacy and increasing understanding of blockchain technology are primary issues to solve before Brazil's central bank digital currency (CBDC) is ready for widespread use, the central bank's coordinator of the project said on Tuesday. Named DREX, the digital real is set for a first phase launch aimed at financial institutions in May 2024, though postponed from an initial planned launch in February. "We need to ensure that the privacy is compatible with the law," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Market maturity is another important issue to solve as the central bank wants businesses to develop new use cases for the technology, Araujo said. The Atlantic Council says 130 countries are in some process of exploring a CBDC, with 21 in the pilot stage.
Persons: Fabio Araujo, Araujo, Lisa Mattackal, Divya Chowdhury, Marcela Ayers, Lincoln Organizations: Machine, Banco Central, Reuters Global Markets, Atlantic Council, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, Bangalore, Mumbai
Cryptoassets increase risk in developing economies, study says
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The report's guidelines for regulating and supervising cryptoasset markets include bans, containment and regulation. "Given the offshore and pseudo-anonymous nature of cryptoasset markets, an outright ban might not prove enforceable," read the BIS paper. "On the contrary, policymakers would lose all sight of these markets, making these markets even less transparent and predictable. In addition, all potential innovation gains from cryptoasset markets would be lost." Keeping control on the flows between traditional financial systems and cryptomarket assets, or containment, hits similar hurdles as a ban as "controlling funds might not be feasible in practice."
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Rodrigo Campos, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, European Union, Thomson
One-two punch barely fazes Uncle Sam
  + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Council Bluffs, Iowa, U.S., July 7, 2023. Fitch Ratings knocked the U.S. government from its perfect AAA grade, becoming the second major ratings agency to demote the country’s debt. Just minutes later, Donald Trump was indicted for his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Yet despite the latest one-two punch, a resilient economy and the dollar’s global standing make it hard to bet against Uncle Sam. Former U.S. president Donald Trump was indicted on Aug. 1 for his sweeping efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Persons: Donald Trump, George Washington’s “, It’s, Treasury Department ., Uncle Sam, Trump, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: U.S, Republican, Reuters, Fitch, AAA, Bank for International, Treasury Department, Treasury Department . Fitch reckons, Former U.S, Trump, Thomson Locations: Bluffs , Iowa, U.S, WASHINGTON, Washington, American
BOJ launches forum with 60 firms on digital yen pilot programme
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
TOKYO, July 20 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan on Thursday kicked off a series of discussions with 60 companies on a pilot programme for developing a digital yen, joining peers around the globe ramping up efforts towards issuing digital versions of their currencies for retail use. The discussions will touch on various themes including the business and technological features of retail settlements using a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the central bank said in a statement. The BOJ has said no decision has been made yet on whether Japan will actually issue a digital yen, which must be made by the government and parliament. But many big Japanese companies were included in the list of 60 firms selected to join the discussions, a sign Japan is moving steadily toward such a launch. Central banks around the globe have been studying and working on digital versions of their currencies for retail use to avoid leaving digital payments to the private sector amid an accelerating decline in the use of cash.
Persons: Lawson, Leika, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, Sony, Toyota, East Japan Railway, Bank for International Settlements, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Central
S.Korea c.bank warns of financial stability risk as debts rise
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SEOUL, July 17 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank said on Monday there was a need to manage financial stability in addition to price risks as the country's high household debts have started to climb. "In terms of monetary policy, it should consider financial stability more actively to prevent excessive leveraging or risky asset investments when monetary policy is loose," the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a report. "There is a need to discuss introducing a 'prudential monetary policy' with higher consideration on financial stability, in addition to price stability," the central bank said. The central bank said in the report there was limited financial stability risk from household debt, given the low loan-to-value ratio and the high percentage of high-income earners, but it flagged negative long-term implications on growth and inequality. The BOK has kept monetary policy unchanged since its last interest rate hike in January and its tightening campaign, which began in August 2021, is widely expected to be over.
Persons: BOK, Jihoon Lee, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Bank of Korea, prudential, Bank for International Settlements, Thomson Locations: SEOUL, Switzerland, Australia
Nearly two dozen central banks across emerging and advanced economies are expected to have digital currencies in circulation by the end of the decade, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) found in a survey, published on Monday. The RBI aims to reach a target of one million CBDC transactions per day by the end of this year, RBI deputy governor T Rabi Sankar said on Tuesday. There were 1.3 million customers and 0.3 million merchants, who used CBDC as of June 2023, he said. "We are in the advanced stage of submitting a CBDC pilot request to the RBI. The central bank has also asked smaller banks to seek feedback from those currently conducting the pilots, the bankers said.
Persons: T Rabi Sankar, Siddhi Nayak, Sohini Goswami Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Bank for International Settlements, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Bank, BOB.NS
Former BoE policymaker Kate Barker told the Financial Times this weekend that targetted and temporary tax rises on top earners may be the most effective and fairest way to go. "We're asking monetary policy to do all the work," she said. But the political sensitivity of income tax likely dictates the way forward, however cogent the economics. Yet the more general point of fiscal policy helping with the final throes of the inflation battle continues to be made. "Fiscal Policy should remain aligned with monetary policy in the fight against inflation," the Fund concluded.
Persons: BoE policymaker Kate Barker, President Biden, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Bank for International, U.S, Bank of, Financial Times, Fed, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Britain's, National Statistics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Republicans, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Britain, London
MEXICO CITY, July 11 (Reuters) - Brazilian financial technology company Ebanx said on Tuesday it has signed a deal to partner with digital bank Nubank to offer more payment services for customers as it tries to consolidate and expand operations in Latin America. Ebanx will now offer corporate customers the option of paying via NuPay, an alternative payment method developed by Nubank for international purchases. Alternative payment methods have helped drive the growth of e-commerce in Latin America and already account for 39% of the total digital commerce volume in the region, Ebanx said. In April last year, Ebanx announced a partnership with digital commerce platform VTEX (VTEX.N) to enable cross-border payments to Brazilian companies operating in Latin America. Ebanx also plans to kick off operations in eight African countries by the end of the year, the company said in a statement.
Persons: Ebanx, Paula Bellizia, Matthew Lewis Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Nubank, Reuters, Carolina, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Latin America, NuPay, Mexico
Central banks around the globe have been studying and working on digital versions of their currencies for retail use to avoid leaving digital payments to the private sector amid an accelerating decline of cash. Most of the new Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will emerge in the retail space, where eleven central banks could join peers in the Bahamas, the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Nigeria which already run live digital retail currencies, the BIS found in its survey of 86 central banks conducted late 2022. On the wholesale side, which in future could allow financial institutions to access new functionalities thanks to tokenisation, nine central banks could launch CBDCs, the BIS said. "Enhancing cross-border payments is among the key drivers of central banks' work on wholesale CBDCs," the authors of the report wrote. Pilot testing in China now reaches 260 million people and two other big emerging economies, India and Brazil, plan to launch digital currencies next year.
Persons: Francois Lenoir, CBDC, Karin Strohecker, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Francois Lenoir LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Central Bank Digital, BIS, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Bahamas, Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica, Nigeria, China, India, Brazil, Silicon, stablecoins
Central bankers lay out digital currency cyber threat
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - The central bankers' central bank, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), has laid out a seven-point plan designed to help countries prevent cyber hacks on the new wave of digital national currencies under development. The BIS acts as an umbrella body for the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and other central banks around the world and has been co-ordinating a lot of work on CBDC development. Hackers have struck a number of central banks in recent years from Denmark to Bangladesh. Specifically, it calls on central banks to:• Recognise the complexity and new threat landscape brought by CBDC systems. It also called for central banks to use the global "MITRE ATT&CK" database of past cyber attacks, and for an "official extension" of the MITRE ATT&CK framework to help central banks beef up their security measures.
Persons: MITRE, Marc Jones, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Polaris, Thomson Locations: Denmark, Bangladesh
LONDON, July 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Western policymakers have frantically hiked interest rates to dampen consumer prices. In this Exchange podcast, Claudio Borio, a top official at the Bank for International Settlements, argues that rate-setters need to keep going to ensure costs of living won’t stay elevated. Listen to the podcastFollow @guerreraf72 on TwitterSubscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Claudio Borio, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Bank for International, Twitter, Thomson
The next revolution in monetary policy is underway
  + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
LONDON, June 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Monetary policy, Milton Friedman said, acts on the economy with long and variable lags. Monetary policy regimes evolve in response to the changing nature of prevailing economic challenges – though this also takes time. The next revolution in monetary policy may be brewing. One question Gopinath did not address is how the financial system came to dominate monetary policy. When contractions hit, however, central banks eased monetary policy and governments loosened their purse strings, just as before.
Persons: Milton Friedman, Gita Gopinath, Gopinath, , , Peter Thal Larsen, Pranav Kiran, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Bank for International, IMF, Central, SVB, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, Fed Funds, BIS, Thomson Locations: Portuguese, Sintra, Korean, United States, Europe, Central, England, London, U.S, China, Ukraine,
In some ways, China and Japan are joined at the hip. As beggar-thy-neighbor foreign exchange depreciation pressures bubble up across Asia, the attraction of a weaker exchange rate grows. In terms of bilateral trade between China and Japan, the attraction is equally clear. China is Japan's largest trading partner, Japan is China's third-largest individual nation trading partner, and bilateral trade is worth around $370 billion annually. Remarkably, the yen has depreciated 25% against the yuan over the last three years, giving corporate Japan a substantial competitive advantage over China Inc.
Persons: Steven Englander, Brad Setser, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Asian Development Bank, Standard Chartered, Finance, Bank for International, China Inc, of Foreign Relations, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Japan, China, Asia, East Asia, Beijing
LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Western central banks have been warned this week not to quit in the final lap of their monetary tightening campaign - the hard yards households and financial markets may now find exhausting. And yet, desperate for their members not to declare premature victory in getting inflation back to 2% targets or sow an assumption above-target inflation will eventually be tolerated, central bank watchdogs are cheerleading a last push. But that's not in forecasts this time around - with U.S. and UK headline inflation rates not back to target by the end of next year and the euro zone not even by then. 'Last Mile' of disinflationBIS chart on speed of disinflation'UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTHS'And the BIS message was echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday. "Monetary policy should continue to tighten and then remain in restrictive territory until core inflation is on a clear downward path," she said.
Persons: that's, Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell's, John Williams, Williams, Joseph Little, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, for Economic Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, Bank's, IMF, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Bank of England, Global, HSBC Asset Management, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Portugal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan and Malaysia must cooperate in the oil and gas industry: Bank chairmanTadashi Maeda, chairman of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, discusses how countries can work together to address their carbon neutrality goals.
Persons: Tadashi Maeda Organizations: Japan, Bank, Japan Bank, International Cooperation Locations: Malaysia
"The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon
Morning Bid: World markets calm after Russia drama
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
More perplexed by events than anything else, world markets stayed relatively calm on Monday after a dramatic Russian military mutiny at the weekend was uneasily quelled. For Russian markets themselves, the rouble slipped to 15-month lows - but it too had been falling last week as oil prices ebbed. Largely now isolated from western investment, Russian stocks fell about 1%. U.S. Treasury yields slipped lower, perhaps with a smidgen of a safety bid from the weekend events helping too. Turkey's lira slid again to record lows after the central bank took steps to simplify rules governing lenders' holdings and foreign deposits after a sharp but underwhelming interest rate rise last week.
Persons: Mike Dolan, uneasily, Vladimir Putin, Leonardo, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Loretta Mester, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wall, Saab, Rheinmetall, Brent, . U.S, Treasury, Bank for International Settlements, HSBC, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Central Banking, Atlanta Federal Reserve, St Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Moscow, Shanghai, Europe, United States, ., Canary Wharf, London, Sintra, Portugal
The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called for more interest rate hikes in its 2023 annual report, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Aaron Chown - Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesThe world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. If interest rates get to mid-1990s levels the overall debt service burden for top economies would, all else being equal, be the highest in history, Borio said. Banking crisesThe Swiss-based BIS held its annual meeting in recent days, where top central bankers discussed the turbulent last few months. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
Persons: Aaron Chown, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon
June 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Wall Street closed in the red on Monday - the Nasdaq shed more than 1% for the third trading day in four - and the U.S. yield curve inversion accelerated to near-historic levels. But inflation and policy concerns are driving sentiment more than geopolitical fears. The Bank for International Settlements on Sunday called for more rate hikes, warning the world economy is at a crucial juncture in the fight against inflation. The International Monetary Fund's Gita Gopinath said on Monday investors may be overly optimistic on the speed and cost of taming inflation.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Gita Gopinath Organizations: Kremlin, Nasdaq, Swiss, Bank for International, U.S, JSR, Japan Investment Corp, ECB, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Russian, U.S, Japan, Canada, Sintra, Portugal
The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) slipped 0.4%, hitting a three month low as the aerospace and defence sector (.FTNMX502010) lost 2.1% after fighters of the Wagner group attempted a mutiny in Russia over the weekend. "Defence stocks tend to benefit from bad news in terms of geopolitical tensions," said Christopher Peters, trading floor manager at Accendo Markets. Britain's biggest defence company BAE Systems (BAES.L) slumped 3.1%, dropping to the bottom of the FTSE 100. The more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) also fell 0.5%, touching a three-month low. Among individual stocks, Cineworld Group (CINE.L) dropped 28.9% after the cinema chain operator said it will file for administration as part of a proposed restructuring plan.
Persons: Russia Cineworld, Aston Martin, carmaker Aston Martin, Wagner, Christopher Peters, JP Morgan, Shashwat Chauhan, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: Defence, U.S, EV, Lucid, carmaker, Accendo, BAE Systems, Lloyds, Bank of England, Bank for International, Cineworld, Thomson Locations: Russia, Bengaluru
Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". "Very high debt levels, a remarkable global inflation surge, and the strong pandemic-era increase in house prices check all these boxes," the BIS said. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon
On Saturday, a fellow global energy power, Qatar, expressed “great concern” about the situation in Russia. Any meaningful loss of Russian energy would force China and India to compete with Western nations for supplies from other producers. Libya and Venezuela provide cautionary tales of how civil war and internal political strife can savage energy exports. At just under 10 million barrels per day, it produces about 10% of global crude oil demand. It took a long time for the Russian oil industry to recover from that.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, “ Putin, , Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Richard Bronze, Matt Smith, Kpler, , Stern, Agustin Carstens, Brent, Moscow, , Sonnenfeld, — Sarah Diab, Sharon Braithwaite, Alexandra Peers, Ramishah Organizations: London CNN —, ” Yale, CNN, Western, Energy, Bank for International, BIS, US Energy Information Agency, Council, Foreign Relations Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Moscow, Russia, China, India, Qatar, Americas, Europe, United States, Basel, Asia, Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Soviet Union, London, New York
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